Trading war: planning the battle.

For previous articles in the “preparing for war” series, click here.

By now you’ve identified which actions at which points in time would be most effective in rapidly forcing your counterpart’s hand. In this step you consider how they might hit back, how each scenario could play out and what you could do to diffuse the impact on your own business.

Fear of reprisals can quickly undermine negotiators, so this step is critical in clarifying their potential, preparing for them, and building the vision, the tactics and the resolve to see it through to a conclusion.

Overt reaction: What precedents exist? Consider how they might respond in order to damage you commercially, through competitors or out of sheer petulance. Decide on two scenarios: what’s the worst they might realistically do; and what’s their most likely response.

Covert reaction: In addition to their overt reaction, how might they use their relationships indirectly to put pressure on you and your team, through partners, stakeholders and higher authorities? Who will you need to brief, manage or stay close during the negotiation?

Your next move: For each of their potential actions, what would you do next in order to retain control, increase pressure and mitigate damage? How might you escalate the dialogue? What could you do pre-emptively to diffuse or mitigate the impact of their actions?

Now repeat the process, considering how they will then react to your response, until you reach a point where you are confident that either they will capitulate and you will re-engage in negotiation, or you will go with your best alternative to a negotiated agreement (BATNA).

If there’s a good chance of a bad outcome, choose a different path. At each step, focus on your objectives, not simply on “winning the war".

BOTTOM LINE: This step can be challenging and may benefit from facilitation or an external perspective to ensure you push the scenarios through to conclusion. However, it’s in this step that confidence and clarity are built, and your true limits and boundaries are revealed.