The best route through a tough negotiation.

A couple of years ago I took my eldest son walking. We were following a route described in a book: “Walk along the wall until you reach a gate on the left. Pass through, and cross the field to the style”. Unfortunately the farmer had removed the wall and there was no gate to be seen. “Of course we’re not lost son”, I grimaced.

Now, when we go walking, we take a map. Sometimes there are still surprises, but when that happens we look for other reference points, take detours and sometimes even find shortcuts. Negotiation is exactly the same. No single-route plan ever survives “first contact”, but the more scenarios you’ve mapped out, the more confident you will be at each turn about where you are, and which way you need to head.

Scenarios: By mapping the scenarios that could unfold, you will get a clear idea of which of your potential moves would be most risky, which are most likely to succeed, and which of their likely reactions you need to plan most carefully to avoid and, if necessary, to deal with.

How to do it: At the top of a large flip-chart or white-board, write the next action you intend to take. Draw two lines leading down from it, just like with a family tree. On one branch, write down their most likely reaction. On the other, write the worst thing they might realistically do in response. If there are other likely responses, add more branches. Now, for each of their actions, consider your best response. Write that, or those, underneath, and repeat the process.

When to stop: There are only three end-points: you permanently cease trading; you agree a deal you’re happy with; or you cave in and agree a deal you didn’t want. Continue mapping out your scenarios until you reach one of these points. Where one branch leads to a bad outcome, trace it back to a point where you can make a different choice, and map that scenario instead.

BOTTOM LINE: You can’t control which actions your counterpart will take, but you can anticipate and plan for the ones that are most likely. You can control the actions that you take, so map their potential consequences, explore your alternatives, and choose wisely.

This article is the final in a three part mini-series. For links to the previous two, click here.